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Australia beat New Zealand by 86 runs: Cricket World Cup 2019 – as it happened

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Australia ensured they finished above the Black Caps with victory at Lord’s with Mitchell Starc and Usman Khawaja their key men

“The wickets haven’t been what a lot of people thought,” says Kane Williamson. “They’re perhaps a bit tired.” They have been strange pitches. Virat Kohli said today that everyone was expecting England to dominate in their own conditions. But they haven’t been English conditions at all: neither the green seamers of yesteryear, nor the buffet-bar flat tracks of recent ODis in England. The pitches have been slowish, often two-paced, and two-faced – promising runs but delivering wickets, mainly to fast left-armers. Starc took five today, to become the first man ever to take three World Cup five-fors in a career; Trent Boult took four, including a hat-trick, which ended up as a magnificent irrelevance.

Thanks for your company and your emails to Geoff and me. The OBO will be back tomorrow to see whether India really are invincible – and England are doomed.

About 45 minutes ago, Pete Salmon sent this email.“I’m predicting an India v Australia final! Who’s with me?!”

The exclamation mark is the clue: the real question is whether anyone is not with Pete. The big four in this tournament has turned into a big two. Australia are now further out in front, with 14 points from eight games, while their only conquerors, India, are second with 11 from six. New Zealand have 11 too, but from two more games, and now with a much worse net run rate (0.57 to India’s 1.16). Pakistan have crept up to fourth with nine from eight. Somebody with three defeats is going to fiddle their way through to the semis: England have to make sure it’s them.

...is not Mitchell Starc. Clearly taking five for 26 is not enough. The award goes to Alex Carey, which is fair comment in a way as he turned the match with his fluent strokeplay.

A game that seemed beautifully poised turned out to be nothing of the sort. It wasn’t really a cricket match at all – it was a pair of sadistic experiments. The Aussies, who had been relying rather too heavily on their openers, decided it would be fun to collapse to 90-odd for five, to see if the lower order could bail them out. It did, thanks to Alex Carey, the only man on either side to come in and find the boundary consistently – he hit 11 fours in his 71, which was six more than Usman Khuwaja in his 88, and nine more than any New Zealander.

Armed with 243, which shouldn’t be enough, Australia made it even harder for themselves by seeing if their captain Aaron Finch could set a new world record for the most bowling changes in a one-day innings. He chopped, he changed, he behaved like Mike Brearley on speed. He used eight bowlers, many of them starting with one-over spells. It was like insisting on hiring a Volkswagen Beetle when you already have a Bentley. The Bentley, when he went back to it, cruised out and ran over the New Zealanders, who went from 97-2 to 157 all out in 18.1 overs. They were both timid and chaotic at the same time: it was as if they were suddenly being managed by Boris Johnson.

It’s all over. Starc is now so dominant that he can take a wicket with an awful ball. It’s short, it’s wide, it’s going for at least one wide and possibly six, until Santner helps it round to long leg. That is a drubbing.

43rd over: NZ 157-9 (Santner 12, Boult 2) Santner has been watching this nonsense from the other end, and he’s had enough. He swings Lyon for six, then has such a big mow that his inside edge is missed by Carey behind the stumps. Lyon’s figures can afford to take a slight dent: he finishes with 10-1-36-1.

42nd over: NZ 144-9 (Santner 5, Boult 0) So that’s a wicket maiden for Starc, who now has the frankly ridiculous figures of 9-1-26-4.

Nice moment for the pub quizmasters: Trent Boult, who took a hat-trick earlier, comes in to try and stop Mitch Starc taking one. And he succeeds, getting neatly behind a straight one. Finch, so much for being Mr Funky, gave Starc only a slip and a gully for that ball, when Steve Waugh would surely have had six slips, two gullies, a silly point and a short leg.

Yet another one. Starc’s nip-backer is too good for Lockie Ferguson, taking out his off stump.

41st over: NZ 144-8 (Santner 5, Ferguson 0) Lyon races through another tidy over.

40th over: NZ 141-8 (Santner 4, Ferguson 0) Yet another wicket for the majestic Starc. He now has 22 wickets, as many as he got in the whole of the 2015 World Cup, when he was Player of the Tournament.

With the clatter of wickets, I didn’t have time to look at Twitter, where a news story may now be developing. “Is that Smith on the grandstand boundary?” says Michael Keane. “Looks like stuff’s being thrown at him.” Three minutes later he tweets again: “Now lots of security. Getting ugly. And a naval officer. F**k’s sake people, this is Lord’s.”

Another one! Starc is reversing it now and his inswinger comes booming in to pin Sodhi in front. Sodhi reviews, but it's umpire’s call.

39th over: NZ 136-7 (Santner 3, Sodhi 4) A New Zealander plays a decent attacking shot, at last, as Ish Sodhi lofts an off-break from Lyon over the man at short fine leg. That was like a sweep played with an upright bat. It’s all over bar the tiny innovations.

Desperate times, desperate measures: Jimmy Neesham tries the skies too and Lyon says “that’s mine”.

38th over: NZ 131-6 (Neesham 9, Santner 2) Starc’s seventh over goes for just a single. Early on, there was a big four in this tournament. Then England had a wobble and there was a big three. Now it’s a big two. The last half-hour means that Australia are more likely to avoid India in the semis, and therefore meet them, back here at Lord’s, on July 14.

And here’s Geoff Wignall again. “Aren’t the Aussies just taking the opportunity to play around with and test their bowling options in a game they don’t especially need to win but are going to anyway?” he wonders. “A bad day for England - points for Pakistan and final game incentivising for NZ.”

37th over: NZ 130-6 (Neesham 8, Santner 2) A better over for New Zealand: nobody gets out. They need 114 off 13 overs at a rate of nearly nine.

36th over: NZ 126-6 (Neesham 4, Santner 1) So that was three wickets for seven runs in four overs. Devastating from Australia, dismal from New Zealand – but they should still make the semi-finals. If England lose tomorrow, not only do India go through, but they take NZ with them, as England would then be unable to get more than 10 points, and NZ already have 11. Whether they will go any further is doubtful: their excellent early form is draining away.

Latham chips into the leg side, and Smith, cheered by that wicket, takes off like a salmon and catches it like a retriever going after a frisbee. Game over, I suspect.

35th over: NZ 124-5 (Latham 14, Neesham 4) On the progress chart, the black worm is almost going downwards, waving goodbye to the yellow one. These two have 18 off 41 balls between them. They could reverse that in the next three overs and still have a battle to get over the line.

34th over: NZ 121-5 (Latham 13, Neesham 2) Off goes Cummins and back comes Lyon, who whistles through an over for just a single. NZ need another 123 off 16 overs, which suddenly looks like far too many.

33rd over: NZ 120-5 (Latham 13, Neesham 1) So, at last, one of the funky bowling changes comes off. Finch deflects the credit, giving two thumbs-up to the Australian balcony, where Justin Langer is sitting with Ricky Ponting. There had just been a drinks break, smuggled in when Taylor was out, so maybe the message was sent out then. Well bowled Steve Smith, who tried several googlies in that over. The commentators think the wicket-taking ball was one of them, but I reckon it just went straight on.

How do you turn a drama into a crisis? Launch your first ball, which is also the first ball of a new spell from a part-time leggie, straight to long-off. Oh dear.

32nd over: NZ 118-4 (Latham 12, de Grandhomme 0) Taylor had just played a handsome pull for four, so he can’t have been feeling too tied down – maybe he was intoxicated. Anyway he tried to be Viv Richards and the upshot is that NZ have lost both their big wickets.

Taylor suddenly hits a full ball straight up in the air. I can’t even work out how he did that. It stays up there for several minutes, and when it finally comes down Carey does well to keep calm and cling on. Australia are on top.

31st over: NZ 112-3 (Taylor 25, Latham 11) You’ll never guess what’s just happened. A bowling change! Lyon’s off-breaks give way to Maxwell’s, which is like replacing Paul McCartney with Noel Gallagher. Maxwell, to be fair, goes for only three, but I’m not sure what Finch is doing here – he could win it with just his main men.

“Good afternoon,” says Ed Smyth. “Surely the answer to what happens to the ball in this heat is that the sunburn makes it a Test ball?” Ha. The four serious bowlers are making it feel like that.

30th over: NZ 108-3 (Taylor 23, Latham 9) Finch continues his bid for the world record for bowling changes in one innings by taking Starc off (5-0-18-1) and recalling Cummins. He starts with four dots and rattles both batsmen with his bounce.

29th over: NZ 107-3 (Taylor 23, Latham 8) Another good over from Lyon nearly brings a run-out, as a direct hit comes in and Latham saves his skin by scraping some of it on the pitch, with a very committed dive. I haven’t been bothering with the run rate required, as it’s been so modest, but it has now reached six and a half.

28th over: NZ 104-3 (Taylor 22, Latham 6) Starc concedes only a single. Latham is right out of form, which can perversely help a batsman – no better time to clamber out of a slump.

The bowling figures are showing that there’s a reason why part-timers are part-timers. Smith, Finch, Stoinis and Maxwell have combined figures of 6-0-34-0, while the four proper bowlers have 22-1-67-3. We’re watching two different ball games.

27th over: NZ 103-3 (Taylor 22, Latham 5) It’s as if all those part-time bowlers were just a dream. Finch, fully awake now, brings back Lyon, who bowls a better, sharper, more testing over than 0-6 might suggest.

26th over: NZ 97-3 (Taylor 21, Latham 1) So Finch, after being too funky, finds exactly the right note. And Starc is the first man to 20 wickets in this World Cup. The top five are all seamers, and Jofra Archer is the only right-armer, outnumbered by Starc, Lockie Ferguson, Mohammad Amir and Trent Boult.

“How is the heat affecting people?” asks John Starbuck. “You’d think the Aussies would be right at home, otherwise why would they live in an extreme country? It’s warm here in t’north but not properly hot, which I gather is the case down south. Does it do anything significant to the ball, though?” It makes it a bit grumpy.

What do you do when your bowling changes suddenly go wrong? You make another one. Finch summons a proper bowler, Mitchell Starc, and he does the business, moving one away from Williamson for a regulation caught behind. That’s the big one.

25th over: NZ 92-2 (Williamson 36, Taylor 20) Maxwell bowls something so slow that Williamson changes his mind a couple of times before driving it, whippily, to mid-off. He picks up a single which takes him to 6,000 in this format. What a player he is, and he confirms it by hitting his next whippy drive in the air, over mid-off. Off the past five overs, New Zealand have doubled the scoring rate (six an over rather than three). And all they’ve had to do is help themselves from the hotel buffet.

24th over: NZ 85-2 (Williamson 31, Taylor 18) A caption shows that Kane Williamson now has the most singles of any batsman in this World Cup, nudging – or nurdling – ahead of Joe Root. As if hearing this, he suddenly produces a six, flicked into the Mound Stand off Stoinis. That’s the first six of the day, as the world’s best players do their best to turn the 50-over game into Test cricket.

23rd over: NZ 77-2 (Williamson 23, Taylor 18) As a captain, you have to treat yourself the same way you treat your troops, so Finch banishes himself after a single over, same as Smith. He continues the merry-go-round by sending for Maxwell. The batsmen say thank you very much and enjoy their cartons of milk. Has Finch been too funky?

22nd over: NZ 73-2 (Williamson 22, Taylor 15) Finch makes his fourth bowling change in four overs as Behrendorff finally gets a rest and Marcus Stoinis comes on. The past two overs have been a drink in the desert for the batsmen.

21st over: NZ 68-2 (Williamson 19, Taylor 14) Finch has now officially jumped the shark. He takes Smith off after one over and brings on... himself! One ball is straight from club cricket, a full toss that would be a wide down leg had Taylor not swatted it for four. That;’s the first boundary for nine overs.

20th over: NZ 61-2 (Williamson 18, Taylor 8) Behrendorff is bowling his ninth over, which is refreshing. Though not for him in this heat, and he shows it by serving up two wides. The legitimate deliveries are on the spot as ever, with one bringing not so much a shout for LBW against Taylor as a plea. It was turned down, rightly, as the ball pitched just outside leg. So the second batch of ten overs produced even fewer runs than the first – 30 rather than 31.

19th over: NZ 57-2 (Williamson 17, Taylor 7) Aaron Finch may not have got runs today, but he’s on fire with his captaincy. He sees Lyon doing so well (3-0-6-0) and takes him off, perhaps for a change of ends. And he brings on... Steve Smith, with his part-time leg-breaks. I thought I was joking when I said he might get a three-for.

18th over: NZ 53-2 (Williamson 15, Taylor 5) Williamson breaks the shackles for a moment, cutting Behrendorff for two, and then he’s dropped again! And again there’s no blame attached, as it was a slower ball and Carey did well to get a fingertip to it, diving away to his right. Williamson is the cat who’s got away with giving two quarter-chances.

17th over: NZ 49-2 (Williamson 12, Taylor 4) Lyon beats Taylor with an arm ball and pushes Williamson into a lap, off middle stump, which would be plumb LBW had he not got a whisper of glove on it. In the last five overs, NZ have managed 9-1. They need to assert themselves, by hook or by crook.

16th over: NZ 47-2 (Williamson 11, Taylor 3) Behrendorff continues to make anyone who thought he was due a bad day (17:30) look stupid. He got that out of his system in his first spell (2-0-11-0) and has been immaculate in his second (5-0-11-2). And that’s drinks, with Australia resurgent. Much will hinge on whether Williamson and Taylor survive long enough to tuck into Stoinis and Maxwell.

15th over: NZ 46-2 (Williamson 11, Taylor 2) Lyon is getting some turn and he has Williamson dropped by Smith at slip, off Carey’s pad was it? Yes, his knee. Lyon did so well, tossing it up and luring Williamson into a drive. It was tough to adjust for Smith, but he hangs his head, knowing he may have dropped the match.

The win predictor has swung to 53-47: still favouring NZ, but beautifully poised.

14th over: NZ 44-2 (Williamson 10, Taylor 1) The replays show that Guptill missed that one by some way. It was only brushing the outside of leg stump, but would have been umpire’s call, so a review wouldn’t have saved him. Congrats to Behrendorff, who now has seven wickets at Lord’s this week, and to Finch for bringing him back after an anodyne opening spell.

One of Guptill’s least explosive innings turns out to be a damp squib as he misses an inswinger. Game on.

13th over: NZ 42-1 (Guptill 20, Williamson 10) Finch, who knows he has to get Williamson early, turns to Nathan Lyon and gives him a short leg, square and deepish (while not nearly as deep as the mysterious stationary man in the 10th over). Both batsmen treat him warily.

12th over: NZ 40-1 (Guptill 19, Williamson 9) Williamson sees Behrendorff drop only slightly short, jumps back and plays a push-cut for four. He can smell victory here.

“I’m curious,” says Geoff Wignall, “as to why a hat-trick is a live-blogger’s nightmare [17:18 and 17:26]. Doesn’t the change of batsman provide as much time as you’d normally expect between overs?” Geoff, are you being logical? About writing? What you’re saying ought to be the case, but (at the risk of going all first-world-problems) any wicket is hard work and three in a row are a headache. The phrase “didn’t trouble the scorers”, as the late Bill Frindall liked to say, is exactly the wrong way round: it should be for a 0 not out.

11th over: NZ 33-1 (Guptill 18, Williamson 3) Williamson thinks about holding a masterclass by playing a back-foot prod under his eyes, but then Cummins runs one down the slope and even Williamson is pushing at thin air. “Nip’n’tuck,” declares Ian Smith. True enough: we’ve seen very few runs, but it’s been quietly fascinating.

10th over: NZ 31-1 (Guptill 17, Williamson 2) In comes Kane Williamson, one of the maestros of this World Cup. Finch does have a plan for him: get him chipping to leg – suddenly there’s a short midwicket and a stationary square leg, 20 yards back but trying to look like a catcher. Williamson, calm as ever, softens his hands, nudges to the stationary man’s right and gets off the mark with a speedy two.

Behrendorff strikes again! With an awful ball! It was down the leg side, and would have been a wide, had Nicholls not feathered it to give Carey a simple catch.

9th over: NZ 29-0 (Guptill 17, Nicholls 8) A maiden from Cummins to Guptill. The Australians don’t need to win this one, but they clearly want to.

An email from our resident schoolkid. “Cricket-lovers are as sporting as Mr Lemon,” says OB Jato, “when they co-host a critically-acclaimed podcast where they can read out their love letters to one of the best bowlers of the modern era, appreciating his hat-trick in the process. The Final Word Daily Review during the World Cup has been an essential feature of my mornings while I get ready for school... Good going, sir, and hoping to hear a rant arrive in my inbox tomorrow about why heart patients should not watch Pakistan, ever!”

8th over: NZ 29-0 (Guptill 17, Nicholls 8) Another little victory for NZ as Finch takes Starc off and brings back Behrendorff. He bowls a better over and has a noisy shout for LBW against Guptill, around leg stump. Finch prefers not to review; HawkEye says it was hitting, but would have been umpire’s call.

And here’s the reassuring sound of Brian Withington. “Care to venture an English perspective on who we should be rooting for today? Geoff adroitly ducked the question earlier - I’m guessing it’s immaterial if we can’t beat India, but what’s your take?” It’s not a game in which England have much skin. A defeat for NZ would mean two in a row and a dent to the confidence before England face them on Wednesday, but it would also mean that they would need to win that game, so it seems much of a muchness.

7th over: NZ 28-0 (Guptill 16, Nicholls 8) Nicholls keeps Cummins out, seeing a bouncer early and declining to have a bite of it. Brendon McCullum, ace captain turned commentator, reckons the Aussies have no particular plan for Nicholls – “it’s just a safe field”. The win predictor is saying NZ 76 per cent, Australia 24, which feels about right.

6th over: NZ 27-0 (Guptill 15, Nicholls 8) Nicholls has been getting so little of the strike that he may suspect Guptill sees him as a tailender. Now he faces Starc, and immediately gets a 95mph half-volley which he pushes back past the bowler with the minimum of fuss. When Starc strays onto his pads, he tucks him away for four more. When Starc bounces him, the lift is so extravagant that it’s a wide.

5th over: NZ 18-0 (Guptill 15, Nicholls 0) Aaron Finch has lost patience with Behrendorff already. He brings on Pat Cummins, who presents Guptill with a friendly loosener, tickled for four. With his fifth ball, Cummins gets everything right, jagging one down the slope and beating the bat.

Pakistan have won that nail-biter, so they go above England, who are now out of the top four. England have a game in hand, but it’s against India, the only invincibles so far.

4th over: NZ 14-0 (Guptill 11, Nicholls 0) Starc keeps Guptill quiet, conceding only a wide and a single off the edge to third man, which may have been a leg bye.

3rd over: NZ 12-0 (Guptill 11, Nicholls 0) Behrendorff is looking much the gentler of these two propositions. When he drops a touch short, Guptill chops for two; when he goes a touch full, Guptill drives for four. When he goes down the leg side, it’s a wide, and when he goes both full and leg-ish, Guptill clips him for three. Experience telling.

2nd over: NZ 2-0 (Guptill 2, Nicholls 0) Mitchell Starc, who’s been immense in this World Cup, saws Guptill in half, twice, by bringing the ball back into the right-hander and getting steep bounce. Meanwhile, the other game has come down to a classic finish: Pakistan need 18 off three overs, Afghanistan need three wickets. Permission to join Rob Smyth.

1st over: NZ 1-0 (Guptill 1, Nicholls 0) It is Jason Behrendorff, lolloping in from the Nursery End. Martin Guptill takes a firm stride forward to push the first ball for a nice, solid, nerve-settling single. He has a new partner, Henry Nicholls, who replaces Colin Munro. He’s twitchy between deliveries and watchful when they arrive.

A line from the old lags.“Get in, stay in,” says Ian Smith, from the crease. “That’s the key for New Zealand.”

Michael Clarke makes the same point in different words: “One of the top four has to get a hundred.” He expects Behrendorff to open the bowling again, after his shock five-for, also at Lord’s, against England. But old mother cricket may have something to say about that: she’s like a teacher who’s always looking to share the form prize around.

Correction. A hat-trick is not every live-blogger’s nightmare. “Glad to get the chance of a hat-trick,” says Geoff, amiable as ever. “Good times.” Have Australian cricket-lovers always been this sporting?

Hello everyone, thanks Geoff and commiserations on the hat-trick – every live-blogger’s nightmare. So New Zealand have shown the world how to deal with Australia’s opening batsmen. Can they do the same with the opening bowlers? That’s where this game is likely to be won and lost. New Zealand have so much time, they may opt to see off Starc and Cummins – but that could be risky with this surface offering something to all the bowlers, even the part-time spinner. What price a Steve Smith three-for?

An exciting finish for New Zealand, and they’ll go into the rooms with the buzz of having nearly bowled Australia out. However, they still missed a trick in not applying more pressure earlier in the Australian innings. Boult didn’t bowl for 30 overs through the middle, while Khawaja and Carey were running away with a substantial partnership. Williamson could have attacked more purposefully when Australia were 92-5. Instead they were allowed to recover to 199 before the next wicket fell. Mind you, Khawaja was dropped twice.

244 isn’t the biggest target, but it could be tough on this surface against some good bowling. It looks like the wicket will spin, which will bring Lyon into play, and it looks abrasive enough to produce reverse swing, which does nicely for Mitchell Starc. Imagine the way Boult finished the innings but add 15 kilometres per hour.

50th over: Australia 243-6 (Cummins 23, Lyon 0) Four in four for Trent Boult? Nearly! Nathan Lyon steps across outside off and tries to ramp. The ball hits his pad and bounces through to Latham, who tries to throw down the stumps and run him out. No dice. But three wickets and two runs from the final over for Boult to keep Australia short of 250.

IT’S A HAT-TRICK FOR TRENT BOULT! The Australians review, just to deflate the moment a bit, but that’s not going to be overturned. Behrendorff a right-hander gets a ball swinging into him from left-arm over the wicket, beating his defensive shot and hitting his back boot, I think, in front of leg stump. That’s out.

First ball! Boult on a hat-trick. Mitchell Starc dishes out a lot of those, and now he gets one back. In-swing, full, and Starc plays across it and misses as the ball cleans him up middle and off stump. Lovely delivery.

Through him! Khawaja steps across to the off side hoping to open up space on leg. Boult delivered a yorker, a bit of swing helping it tail towards leg stump. Khawaja might have got a touch on it, might not, but either way it sneaks past his bat, past his heel, and clips his leg stump. Outski.

Vital innings from Khawaja, who made 89 against Bangladesh, 89 in a warm-up against Sri Lanka, and 88 here today. Hasn’t had the enjoyment of raising a hundred, but if Australia win today then he’ll be the key.

49th over: Australia 241-6 (Khawaja 87, Cummins 22) Ferguson with the penultimate over. A couple of singles, then Khawaja misses the lot as he tries to uppercut. Swings a pull shot away for a single next ball. That’s alright, because Cummins is scoring faster than Usman. A nice thick edge to third man for a brace, then Ferguson errs with a full toss and Cummins smacks it through cover for four! He’s making an impression with the bat.

Meanwhile, Pakistan have lost a fifth wicket, with the score on 146 chasing 228. Hmmmm.

48th over: Australia 232-6 (Khawaja 85, Cummins 15) Boult now, and Cummins gets off strike with a nudge. Khawaja bowls a beautiful yorker to himself, charging a length ball and making it very full. But he gets a lucky boundary out of it by squeezing it past the keeper. Then a single, letting Cummins glide two more. The runs flow.

47th over: Australia 224-6 (Khawaja 80, Cummins 12) The 47th over is the Cummins show. Leg-spin is more his speed. He goes hard at Sodhi, with mixed degrees of aesthetic but remarkably consistent utility. He nails one big slog sweep, knocked down in the deep. Slices a shot that falls safely past mid-off. Slices another that hangs in the air for an eternity, but Boult coming up from long-on doesn’t commit to the dive. The bowler himself might have trekked back to that more effectively. Finally there’s another slog sweep, connected cleanly, smoked to the deep.

And all of those shots are worth? Two runs each. Why bother looking good? Just score. Cummins takes a single to keep the strike.

46th over: Australia 215-6 (Khawaja 80, Cummins 3) Ferguson misses his line once in that over and gets carved away for four over backward point. Khawaja up and running. A single though brings Cummins on strike, and he’s not doing much against the bouncers coming his way.

Kenrick Riley emails in. “Today’s team is rather good looking. Would you ruminate on what changes might be made for the Test series?”

45th over: Australia 209-6 (Khawaja 75, Cummins 2) Slapped by Khawaja. The reverse-sweep really is his pet shot against spin, and he plays it better than just about anyone in the world I reckon. Nails yet another from Sodhi, over backward point and into the gap for six. Sodhi has had a strange old day.

44th over: Australia 202-6 (Khawaja 69, Cummins 1) What an over from Ferguson. He’s been fast and furious all day, but accurate too. Bowls a perfect bouncer that Khawaja has to evade, then a slower ball mistimed straight to the field, then another textbook bouncer. Ferguson has been right at the helmet every time he’s gone short today.

43rd over: Australia 199-6 (Khawaja 67) Williamson has 1 for 25, taking that wicket from the final ball of his seventh over. Carey was brilliant, getting Australia out of jail, and they’re a chance to make a reasonable score. Pat Cummins will be next in, and he can bat. A situation like this might suit him more than usual, because he has a few overs and just needs to bat, rather than slog.

Finally New Zealand break through. The ball has followed Guptill all day, to mixed results, but he catches that one. Williamson tosses up, Carey tries to loft over cover, but only lifts it straight to the man stationed there.

42nd over: Australia 194-5 (Khawaja 64, Carey 69) Not quite timing things as easily off Boult this over, as Carey chips over cover, then flicks a single to move to 69. Nice. The century partnership comes up as well.

41st over: Australia 190-5 (Khawaja 63, Carey 66) Williamson burgles another over. He’s bowled six of them for 20 runs. Meanwhile he’s got two specialist spinners in his team who have bowled seven overs between them.

“Can you clear something up for me?” asks John Spencer. “From an English perspective who should we be cheering for today?” I would have thought that morally the English would want Australia to lose anytime. And if Australia win they’ll probably top the table, which means England would play Australia in a semi if finishing fourth. But then if New Zealand beat Australia and top the table, England would play New Zealand two games in a row. That might make England feel more like it’s a nice bilateral series, in which case they’ll win?

40th over: Australia 188-5 (Khawaja 62, Carey 65) Here’s Boult, with four overs in hand from his allotment. Carey doesn’t time the first couple, but when Boult rather floats one up, Carey off-drives it perfectly for four. What timing. He’s now made 102 from 90 balls at this ground in the World Cup, unbeaten thus far. The partnership is 96! New Zealand have literally and figuratively dropped the ball today.

39th over: Australia 182-5 (Khawaja 62, Carey 60) Williamson is still doing the job, including drawing a thick edge from Carey that hits the keeper Latham and bounces off him. Not really a catching chance at that pace, with Carey aiming a full-blooded cover drive at it. Four from the over.

38th over: Australia 178-5 (Khawaja 59, Carey 59) Good Lord’s, Alex Carey. He is in some touch today. Ferguson comes back, looking to muscle out some wickets, but instead Carey crashes away a pull shot with perfect timing. Middled that for four. That was after he’d cut a couple of runs, half saved by Guptill to stop it zooming away towards the Warner Stand. Nice of them to name one after Little Davey. Carey has caught up to Khawaja, and also gone to his highest ODI score out of his three half-centuries so far.

37th over: Australia 172-5 (Khawaja 59, Carey 53) Williamson will keep himself on forever at this rate. He drops Khawaja into a pot of glue, thrashing around for five deliveries before he can find a single.

“Vis-à-vis Shannon’s comments,” writes Reg Gorczynski, who has obviously found the accent function on his keyboard, and well done, “I’m following both games from Toronto. My niece (in Yorkshire) is an avid NZ fan, to my dismay (I’m an England fan of course)… I’m avoiding contacting her as NZ are faring so well, as indeed are Pakistan, which drives us deeper into a hole… I feel for the Aussie waiter!”

36th over: Australia 170-5 (Khawaja 58, Carey 52) There’s the first false shot from Carey. Unfortunately for Neesham it comes off an inside edge past off stump and cuts back inside the keeper to race for four. That’s after Carey had slapped a pull shot for a boundary. The second of those raises his fifty, and he’s up past a run a ball as well.

35th over: Australia 160-5 (Khawaja 57, Carey 43) Williamson rattles through another over for four singles, seeing if he can sneak through his full ten before Australia notice.

34th over: Australia 156-5 (Khawaja 55, Carey 41) De Grandhomme bowls a few on the spot to Carey, dotting him up, but strays too short and Carey nails his pull for four. Every big shot he’s played has been crisp and sure.

33rd over: Australia 150-5 (Khawaja 54, Carey 36) Williamson continuing with his off-breaks. Presumably with two left-handers in, he wants to turn the ball away from them rather than have Sodhi spinning it in. So the skipper keeps tossing the ball up, trying to tempt something excessive from the batsmen. Three singles from the over.

32nd over: Australia 147-5 (Khawaja 53, Carey 34) The Kiwis are letting this slip, I fancy. A fifty up for Khawaja, who has been dropped twice. A fifty partnership up for this pair as well, in good time. Six from the de Grandhomme over. Carey scoring with relative ease and not much risk.

“Do I have enough credit in the OBI bank to be permitted to play the cameo role of jaundiced English observer for just a moment?” Alright Brian Withington, here’s your chance. “Where exactly do Australia keep their on/off switch? Would be nice to know because England’s is currently missing (or stuck). So great to see NZ warming up ominously for their last game, too.”

31st over: Australia 141-5 (Khawaja 49, Carey 32) Kane Williamson having a bowl. He did get a wicket against Pakistan, but that was Mohammad Hafeez, who specialises in getting out to part-time spinners. The singles keep coming, and a fat nick (not Santa Claus) from Khawaja’s bat.

30th over: Australia 136-5 (Khawaja 45, Carey 31) De Grandhomme goes for five runs. I’ve been distracted by trying to upload a photo from Peter Kell, which holds the answer to the mystery about throwing cricket bats off trains. But I can’t make the picture work. It’s of a sign on a Swedish train, I think banning vodka bottles or similar? It does look a bit like a cricket bat, I can confirm. Visual gags don’t work so well without the visual, sorry.

29th over: Australia 131-5 (Khawaja 44, Carey 27) Ferguson is using the short-pitched attack at Carey, sizzling one past him. Similiar to the Warner ball, but Carey dropped his gloves successfully. A couple more follow, then a gimme ball on leg stump that Carey clouts through square for four. Back and forth the needle goes.

28th over: Australia 126-5 (Khawaja 43, Carey 23) Colin de Grandhomme is back for Neesham, like for like. Tight in line and length, giving away only two singles.

Here’s a lovely email. “Following the CWC on guardian in Sweden on Inlandsbanan train going north to the Arctic circle. Swedes are curious about cricket. Here it looks like they are saying don’t throw cricket bats out of the train! Best wishes. Keep the great comments on CWC.”

27th over: Australia 124-5 (Khawaja 42, Carey 22) Here is Ferguson on cue. He’s swung around to the Pavilion End, perhaps hoping to use the slope to jag his short balls across Khawaja from leg stump to off. Khawaja jams a yorker, then uses that angle for a single to third man. Carey isn’t intimidated, driving through cover again for four! He’s in wonderful touch in this series, and perhaps this is Carey’s chance to do more than slice and slash 30 or 40 in the dying overs.

“Welcome as it is to come across Tom Eliot quotes on the OBO, I suspect they might be better saved for the England inquest in a few days,” write Geoff Wignall. “As examples: the ‘vacant interstellar spaces’ (have I remembered that right?) of the Vince defensive technique. The leadership’s tactical ‘thought’. Or maybe the sometime need to be ‘still and still moving’, as exemplified by Root but ignored by most. Fear in a handful of dust might yet represent the Ashes campaign.”

26th over: Australia 118-5 (Khawaja 41, Carey 17) I’d be very inclined to get Ferguson back on. Go for the win now. He’s only bowled four overs, and one more wicket all but does the job for New Zealand. Neesham continues, and Carey plays another perfect cover drive for four.

25th over: Australia 112-5 (Khawaja 40, Carey 12) Khawaja is going serenely along, putting his close scrapes out of mind. He’s got the reverse sweep going nicely against Santner, who is turning the ball into the left-hander. Khawaja cracked the code for this shot in Dubai last October, where he reversed the leg-spinner Yasir Shah to distraction while saving an unsalvageable Test against Pakistan.

24th over: Australia 108-5 (Khawaja 37, Carey 11) Neesham in to Khawaja and another catch is dropped! They’ve taken some rippers and dropped some mediums, and that was a medium. It would have been a good stretch from Latham behind the wicket, high and to his left with one glove, but it wasn’t flying off the outside edge, and another keeper would have held that. Khawaja does tend to go after wide balls, and he’s reprieved for a second time.

23rd over: Australia 105-5 (Khawaja 35, Carey 10) Huge leg-before shout against Khawaja, who’s beaten by sharp turn from Santer spinning into the left-hander. It hits Khawaja on his back leg, but could have been going down leg side or possibly bouncing over. I suspect that would have been clipping, umpire’s call. NZ don’t bother going upstairs. Khawaja gets off strike next ball, and Carey reverse-sweeps for four! Audacious shot, but smart enough with one man behind point and a big gap. It beats the cover sweeper running around, the shot gorgeously placed.

22nd over: Australia 97-5 (Khawaja 32, Carey 5) Alex Carey is next in, and picks up where he left off against England here a few days ago. He laces Neesham through cover from his second ball for four.

What a catch! Another stunner from New Zealand, this time from Neesham. Maxwell likes to take on the short ball, but he’s taking on a slowish seamer on a slowish surface. The ball stops on him, taking the toe end of his bat. That shouldn’t matter, it should just be lobbing away towards short cover for a dot ball. But Neesham is on the right foot for a dive, and hurls himself over away from the pitch. At six-foot-plenty, he just gets a hand under the ball.

21st over: Australia 92-4 (Khawaja 32, Maxwell 1) Mitchell Santner comes on for his first roll of the arm, left-arm orthodox, and Khawaja wants to take him on straight away. Unsettle him. So the batsman carves away behind point, and a diving attempt in the deep can’t stop four. Santner is affected, because he bowls too far leg side after that, and while Khawaja’s genuflecting sweep doesn’t make contact, the ball rolls for four extra wides. Maxwell gets off the mark with a nudge to fine leg.

20th over: Australia 81-4 (Khawaja 27) So Stoinis is out from the last ball of the over. He hasn’t done the job with the bat at all in this tournament, and the lack of all-rounder backup is an ongoing problem for Australia. It hasn’t cost them yet, but it might. A lot riding on Khawaja now. And Glenn Maxwell walks to the middle, with plenty of time left in the game for once. He needs to play accordingly, as he did on occasional in India and the UAE recently.

That partnership ends. Neesham would have been the bowler Australia was least worried about, but his line there was immaculate. Just on the off stump, using the Lord’s slope to deck away a touch, and Stoinis was just coming forward in defence and got a thin edge. Fine bowling.

18th over: Australia 72-3 (Khawaja 24, Stoinis 17) Jimmy Neesham comes on with his medium-pacers, and he settles into a nice tight line. Khawaja drives powerfully a couple of times, but can only drive straight and the field is well set for it. Just the one single for Stoinis from the first ball.

Shannon Campell is writing in from Deutschland, Deutschland, uber alles. “Hi Geoff, I’m following the OBO while catering a very swanky affair in Berlins western suburbs. I’ve already spilled a little anti pasti on my screen and im surrounded by Germans who are completely oblivious to what’s going in in the cricket world. Then I hear a little groan and I see one of the waiting staff checking his phone as Ferguson does for Warne, I think I might have an Aussie here, which spices things up enormously!

19th over: Australia 77-3 (Khawaja 26, Stoinis 20) This pair have added 30 now, and they’re looking decent. Three more singles from Sodhi’s over as they just look to hang in there. Pakistan are chasing 227 at Headingley and have lost an early wicket, Fakhar Zaman out to the young spinner Mujeeb.

17th over: Australia 72-3 (Khawaja 24, Stoinis 17) Sodhi is bowling nicely here, using a lot of flight, throwing in a googly that hits Stoinis on the pad and draws a loud appeal. Khawaja sweeps a couple, and that’s never his most convincing shot. He plays the reverse well when the ball is outside off, but his conventional sweep is often a bit heart-in-mouth.

Here’s Phil Withall. “This morning, on my walk to work, I caught up with the latest episode of the excellent The Spin podcast. In it the panel unanimously dismissed New Zealand as a threat to England’s qualification hopes. I was more than a little sceptical when I heard that statement, I am more so now.”

16th over: Australia 68-3 (Khawaja 21, Stoinis 16) Ferguson carries on, and this is some spell. First he zings through a proper bouncer that has Khawaja leaping out of the way. Then, after Usman flays away a single with some trepidation, Stoinis is very nearly caught at mid-off. Stoinis can’t time his drive, and Ferguson’s pace sees it carry, and carry, then just bounce short of Williamson diving forward. The Kiwi skipper shakes his head ruefully at his bowler. So Ferguson goes back to the well and bowls the yorker he bowled to Faf du Plessis, except Stoinis is just able to jam down in a puff of dirt and adrenaline. “I will show you fear in a handful of dust.”

15th over: Australia 61-3 (Khawaja 20, Stoinis 16) Stoinis is keen to get things going, so he takes on Sodhi and plays a lofted swat over mid-on. Less controlled than his cover drive, I can assure you. But gets away with it. Then a couple of singles follow. A little partnership forming.

14th over: Australia 61-3 (Khawaja 19, Stoinis 11) That is luvvverly from Stoinis. He has been in very average nick for a long while with the bat, but he does have clean strokeplay when he gets going. Could today be the day? He drives Ferguson on the up through cover for four.

13th over: Australia 55-3 (Khawaja 18, Stoinis 6) Ish Sodhi comes on for his first over of leg-spin. No immediate dramas, as the Australians collect five singles. John Ryan emailed before the last two wickets fell to ask what a good score was on this pitch, suggesting 270. I think that was about right, but Australia would do well to get 250 from here.

12th over: Australia 50-3 (Khawaja 15, Stoinis 4) Australia juggle the batting order with so many overs to go, and send in Stoinis ahead of Maxwell. Good move, as Stoinis also likes time to build into an innings. He gets a bonus boundary courtesy of Boult, who inexplicably fumbles while picking the ball up at third man and drops it while falling over the rope, only for it to roll onto the rope itself. Australia’s 50 is up, but their three biggest guns have been decommissioned.

What a catch! Third time lucky for Guptill. He’s dropped a tough one, a straightforward one, and now he snares a worldly one. Ferguson’s pace does for Smith, who is trying to hook a short ball but got it high on the splice. It goes flat rather than up, but Guptill at backward square leg takes off to his left and takes it one-handed away from his body. Exceptional, and Australia are rocking.

11th over: Australia 45-2 (Khawaja 14, Smith 5) Boult carries on, into his sixth. How many overs of his strike bowler will Williamson use? Smith drives down through long-on ground and strolls back for a third run.

10th over: Australia 40-2 (Khawaja 12, Smith 2) Another fumble for Guptill in the gully, who is being given a horror day by the ball. Smith skews a shot past him on the bounce for two. Ten overs done, a slow start for Australia and their two most prolific batsmen gone. This is now very interesting.

What a delivery! What a start from Lockie Ferguson! First ball he bowls! Excuse the exclamation marks, but I’m exclaiming. Ferguson has been held back. He’s fast. He’s fierce. He has 15 wickets already in the World Cup, then he goes to 16 with his first ball in the match. It takes off from a fullish length, it rears at Warner like a viper, and though the batsman sways back to get out of the way, it flicks his glove as it soars through to Latham. Unbelievable bowling.

9th over: Australia 38-1 (Warner 16, Khawaja 12) Now it’s Khawaja’s turn to get moving, comfortably collecting a pair of twos from Boult, then glancing four fine. When Khawaja is scoring effortlessly, it’s a real problem for opponents. He can cruise when conditions are right. And he likes making runs against New Zealand.

8th over: Australia 30-1 (Warner 16, Khawaja 4) Warner is warming into his task, as he strides forward and whacks de Grandhomme with a lot of wrist back through mid-off. That was a kind of hockey slap more than a drive.

“I always support Australia but two things worry me about today’s match,” writes Kev McMahon. No one named Kev could support anyone but Australia, surely? “Firstly, it’s a dead rubber - we’re already in the semis, so will we care? (Historically, no.) Secondly, NZ plays better against Australia than anyone else. They hate losing to us, and fair enough too. Their memories go back way before any sandpaper...”

7th over: Australia 25-1 (Warner 12, Khawaja 3) Another close call for Australia, and Guptill, as Warner shapes to cut but is surprised by bounce from Boult, and ends up toe-ending the ball over point and over Guptill’s leap. Two runs result, then Warner feels more in control when he gets a ball whose shorter length he can read, and pull for four.

6th over: Australia 19-1 (Warner 6, Khawaja 3) Pretty ropey start from Khawaja, who prods around at de Grandhomme’s medium pace offerings before eventually knocking two runs to the leg side. I wonder if this is David Warner’s lowest score after six overs of a one-day innings.

“No,” writes Amod Paranjape sternly in answer to my earlier question. “New Zealand is going to win, mate as is Afghanistan. Gut Instinct.”

Related: Pakistan v Afghanistan: Cricket World Cup 2019 – live!

5th over: Australia 16-1 (Warner 6, Khawaja 1) The one consolation for Australia is that Khawaja bats best in one-dayers when he has plenty of time to get in, and time in the Powerplay. He has both now. But he’s almost sent back straight away, except Guptill drops another one! This was more straightforward, at slip this time. Leaning away to his right but it came direct and high enough to take. Boult should have had two. What will that cost?

“Morning Geoff, morning everyone,” writes Andrew Cosgrove in true Richie style. “I’m sitting in South London, wishing I was at Lord’s. It’s a beautiful day, and this could be a cracker. A lot will depend on whether Guptill can get out of this slump of form, and whether new man Nicholls can do better than Monroe. It would be interesting to see what Williamson and Taylor can do with a platform, rather than having to rescue a disastrous start again. Taylor feels like he’s due a score, it seems like he has done OK without reaching the heights we know he is capable of. But really, it all comes down to whether the Aussies can get Williamson early. They look worryingly like they are hitting form at just the wrong (or right, from your point of view, I guess) time.”

Scott Lowe called it. Boult strikes early, over the wicket, a bit of shape on the ball and it came back into Finch, beating his inside edge and striking him a bit high but right back in front of his stumps. Finch has just gone past 500 runs for the tournament, but he’s been key to almost all of Australia’s wins. Big loss.

4th over: Australia 11-0 (Warner 6, Finch 4) If you’re labouring under the misapprehension that we know everything at the Guardian, I only just realised that Colin de Grandhomme bowled the second over. I just assumed it would be Lockie Ferguson, but Williamson must be hoarding his fast-bowling resources given he only has two front-line options. Watching live rather than on TV, I spent the entire second over wondering why Ferguson had changed his run-up and made it so short. And why he looked slow through the air and was bowling neat out-swingers. Anyway, that’s all airbrushed out of history now. De Grandhomme keeps his second over almost as tidy as his first, three runs.

3rd over: Australia 8-0 (Warner 5, Finch 3) First run of the day for Australia comes in the third over, as Boult gets too straight and Warner nudges a single. But they flow thereafter as Boult stays on the pads for both batsmen, with Finch whipping a couple through midwicket to provoke a great chase and save from Neesham, then gliding a single, before Warner whips four in similar fashion.

2nd over: Australia 0-0 (Warner 0, Finch 0) Colin de Grandhomme from the Nursery End now. He has Finch defending, then driving to cover, then dropped! Very tough chance. They’ve packed the off-side field to let Ferguson attack off stump. Guptill is in at a very short cover, and Finch drives hard, hit it flush, and Guptill dives across to save. The ball carried but was struck so hard that it bounced off his hand. Morally that’s four runs saved rather than a catch gone down. Finch cracks another drive straight to mid-off. The Kiwis are switched on today. Another maiden.

“Hi Geoff,” writes Anna Halford. “Very excited about the trans-Tasman clash today (Kiwi supporter). Deep respect for the Aus bowling attack, though, and they’ll have their tails up from the England match too, which is worse. Following from Cameroon on a mobile signal so the OBO is my only link with the day’s play - I’m counting on you. Hoping to be raising a beer to a Black Cap victory later!”

1st over: Australia 0-0 (Warner 0, Finch 0) And we are away! Trent Boult to start things off to Warner. Boult is bowling left-arm swing from the Pavilion End, and he’s swinging it immediately. Warner is content to cover up and wait. Once punch nearly squeaks through cover, but is well fielded. One ball from Boult holds its line and takes a thick edge on the bounce to gully. A maiden to start.

Since you might all be sick of me before long, I’ll start with a very kind email from Brian Withington. “Just finished luxuriating in your sublime description of the Mitchell Starc dismissal of Ben Stokes, he gushed. I particularly enjoyed your metaphor of the relaxed wrist ‘opening a warm bread roll’, which brought back fond memories of the Duckworth-Lewis celebration of Shane Warne’s ball of the last century https://youtu.be/wa_iG_W0gvk, with its imaginary ‘cheese roll’ that would never have evaded the bemused Mike Gatting.”

Thanks Brian. If you want a longer pre-match read, here it is. Who says I can’t write 1500 words on one delivery?

Related: Why we can’t stop watching Mitchell Starc’s dismissal of Ben Stokes | Geoff Lemon

Ten minutes to go, with the anthems and all that stuff to come. You can fill in a minute by reading Virat Kohli’s assessment (with some sympathy) of the England team’s current predicament. He’s not shy of an answer, Kohli.

Related: Virat Kohli says England are struggling to handle tournament pressure

What is everybody’s hunch today? It feels like a comfortable Australian win for me. New Zealand have won a lot of games but had some tight squeezes. Australia have won the toss on a batting day. They still don’t look like a complete team: they’ve won their matches based on some big opening partnerships, a couple of handy score boosts from Smith and Maxwell, and consistent genius bowling by Starc backed by dot-ball pressure from Cummins. A couple of other players have made cameos. But ultimately Australia have been consistent, even if they have parts of the XI that don’t click.

Two changes for the Kiwis, with pacer Matt Henry making way for leg-spinner Ish Sodhi, and opening bat Colin Munro dropped for Henry Nicholls after a poor run of form. One Henry in, one out. But still a Colin, thankfully.

Martin Guptill
Henry Nicholls
Kane Williamson
Ross Taylor
Tom Latham
Jimmy Neesham
Colin de Grandhomme
Mitchell Santner
Ish Sodhi
Lockie Ferguson
Trent Boult

No changes for Australia, who go in with the team that beat England.

Aaron Finch *
David Warner
Usman Khawaja
Steve Smith
Glenn Maxwell
Marcus Stoinis
Alex Carey
Patrick Cummins
Mitchell Starc
Nathan Lyon
Jason Behrendorff

That’s a bit advantage for the green and gold. Runs on the board will be key today. It’s a used pitch, and even the two fresh ones here this week have been slow and hard to time shots on.

As always, you are the OBO and the OBO is you. Get involved with today’s game by e-mailing me, as our ancestors have done since time immemorial. And I will do my best to keep an eye on the old Twitter feed as well.

Email: geoff.lemon@theguardian.com

Good morning from the House of Lords. Wait, sorry, that’s the other joint across town, where democracy’s shining sword cleaves shiningly through the thickets of governance. Good morning from a house, of Lord. The chap who has been confusing people with a possessive apostrophe since the dawn of cricket. Apostrophes can be very possessive. Once they get hold of you they won’t let you go.

Australia and New Zealand today. The supporters are streaming in already, with more yellow shirts than I saw in the whole match against England. Has the trans-Tasman rivalry seen my fellow nationals fire up, or is it just that English people didn’t dominate the ballot and the resale market? There are plenty of people who applied for tickets but missed out on every game, and plenty of others who didn’t but are paying way over the odds from scalpers.

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